Note
from the developer:
In
1979 I developed a software schedule and cost estimation model (Jensen I)
I called Seer based on a scriptural reference I happened to have seen
during the development. The scripture says "But a Seer can
know of things which are past, and also of things which are to come, and
by them shall all things be revealed, or rather, shall secret things be
made manifest, and hidden things shall come to light, and things which are
not known shall be made known by them, and also things shall be made known
by them which otherwise could not be known." The goal of
the Seer development was an estimating tool that produced the most
realistic estimate possible with the known data and inputs. This
model should be accurate in the hands of an experienced estimator and
produced at a reasonable price. That goal is still and will always
be primary in the development. Seer has always met the goal with a
minimum of chrome and glitz.
Seer
has been the basis of several commercial tools including CEI's JS-2 and
System 3, and the Galorath SEER-SEM™. Seer is likely the most
widely used software estimating tool in use today.
Seer
has evolved through the years as the need AND supporting technology has
been available. When the original Seer was released there were
projects that, for an unknown reason, failed to correlate with project
results. Over the years, additional projects failed in the same
way. In 1995 while studying Boehm's Software Engineering text the
statement regarding software management "Despite this cost
variation, COCOMO does not include a factor for management quality, but
instead provides estimates which assume that the project will be well
managed... pg 487" Modern management methods had not been
accounted for in the original tool. First, most projects are not
well managed, but were consistently managed. Sage was the first
product that accounted for the variation in management methods, style and
environment.
When
software growth information became available, Seer was again updated to
account automatically for software growth and Sage 2 was released.
Sage
3, the latest version of the evolving Seer model, was primarily
driven by the need to include function point sizing methods mixed with
source lines of code and is fully compliant with IFPUG 4.2 counting
methods. For completeness, the function point capability includes a
real-time system extension proposed by Steve Whitmore of Boeing Co. that
allows a simple extension of function points for object sizing
methods.
In
addition to the sizing additions it had become obvious that producing and
estimate was not the only responsibility of the estimating tool. In
experienced users could produce estimates that had little to do with
reality by incorrectly evaluating the parameters that drive the cost and
schedule. A feature was added to compare the current estimate with
estimates for the same system types based on history. The facility
rates the estimate with history and makes corrective suggestions when
necessary for areas to re-evaluate in the estimate.
Sage
3 represents the state-of-the-art in software schedule and cost
estimating. The goal of the most realistic
estimate possible, a tool that is accurate in the hands of an experienced
estimator much like a scalpel in the hands of a surgeon, and available at
reasonable cost.
Randall
W. Jensen, PhD -- developer of Seer and Sage 3
